“Prognoses like those of Cathie Wood or Elon Musk are interested and unreliable: They are judge and party”

Forecasts like those of Cathie Wood or Elon Musk are interested and unreliable: opinions of judge and party

We analyze the keys to the market at the hands of Juan Ignacio Crespo, Economic Analyst

He points out that as long as China continues to have such a high percentage of GDP generated from heavy industry and construction sectors, it has a very complicated future. It also highlights how the United States has the problem of five million public gas. The additional injections of public spending in the United States after the pandemic were no longer justified

Looking at the old continent, he points out how in Europe, there has been a very strong economic support for the economy in other areas: these injections have caused inflation. The rise in inflation is very similar to how it did between the years ’99 and 2000 and the decline from that year was very slow.

The expectations regarding what the Federal Reserve is going to do indicate that it is going to be very tough. To opt for a figure is to guess too much.

The message from Cathie Wood and Elon Musk that there are deflationary components in the US economy that should lead the Fed to lower rates instead? Those who send these messages are judges and party. They want the FED not to raise rates because they are buying. These opinions should not be taken too seriously.

Normally, we are all judge and party, but in this case it is especially evident. Interested forecasts and therefore unreliable. This does not mean that there will not be very important deflationary movements: one of them is real estate consumption. But those are future stages.

As for the Chinese economy, Crespo says that it is suffering a very strong slowdown due to the Covid 0 policy but, above all, due to the problem in the real estate sector, which was largely leading the Chinese economy until now. As long as China continues to have such a high percentage of GDP generated from heavy industry and construction sectors, it has a very complicated future.

#FED
#Federal Reserve
#ElonMusk
#cathiewoods
#interest rates
#Deflation
#lowertypes
#monetarypolicy
#Curly
#Economy

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