The billionaire investor and founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, ray dalioreturned to the charge against Spanish banks and opened new shorts on BBVA.
Specific, Dalio has just taken a bearish position in the Basque bank of 31.93 million shares.
This attack involves taking 0.5 percent of the bank’s capital short, in a bearish operation valued at 143 million euros, according to CNMV records consulted by Finanzas.com.
In this way, the bottom of Dalio gives one more twist to the giants of Spanish banking, as it is also positioned short with 0.59 percent of Santander Bank.
The veteran investor took these shares against the two Spanish banking giants at the beginning of the summer, although in mid-July he undid the shorts on BBVA, the same ones that he has just reactivated as soon as September began.
A sector in the spotlight
So far this year, BBVA shares have fallen 15.5 percent on the IBEX 35, while those of Banco Santander are down 19 percent.
The Sanchez tax to financial entities announced at the beginning of the summer placed the IBEX 35 banks in the eye of the hurricane, an incentive for bearish funds like Dalio’s.
Among medium-sized banks, the new levy it will eat up to 27 percent of the pre-tax profits of medium-sized entities of Spanish banking, according to finances.com.
On the contrary, the bite for the two Spanish banking giants will not reach double digits in profits, as they are more protected by their international business and their greater diversification.
Dalio’s risky bet against BBVA
The return of the bottom Bridgewater Associates the squad of bears is not without its point of risk for ray dalio.
Not surprisingly, BBVA is the bank that received the most praise after its semi-annual results presentationwhich have earned the bank a 6.5 percent rebound since the figures were made public.
Contrary to what the fund predicts Daliothe consensus of Bloomberg analysts calculates a rebound potential for BBVA in the next twelve months of 42 percent.
BBVA’s good performance in all its businesses, but especially in Mexico, the true engine of profits and dividendsare the main supports for a bank that has the backing of investor analysts.
Also, the bank is undisputed leader in dividend yield between the Spanish banks and will pay next year one of the three most profitable dividends of all European banks.
BBVA shines in analyst forecasts
Likewise, BBVA is one of the most recommended banks, with 48.4 percent of purchase notes, another 48.4 percent of advice to hold and only 3.2 percent of sale recommendations.
Among global banks, for example, it is the preferred option by analysts at Renta 4 Banco. “It has a better risk profile and better coverage management, with less exposure to business banking,” these experts explained.
In addition, the bank provides greater capital strength, together “with a more attractive shareholder remuneration policy,” added the sources consulted.
The only mole is the situation in Turkey, where hyperinflation has already eaten all the profit contribution of the Garanti subsidiary. It is the only aspect to monitor, although experts consider that the risks, for now, remain limited.
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BBVA: Ray Dalio returns to the fray and opens new shorts